The United States has seen a significant drop in its birthrate in recent years. According to data from the CDC, the birth rate in the U.S. fell by 20% from 2007 to 2022, reaching a record low of 1.64 births per woman.
This low birth rate is even lower than China’s, which is currently at 1.70 births per woman. China has historically had one of the lowest birthrates in the world due to its former one-child policy, which was implemented in 1979 and ended in 2015.
This is birthrate is not sustainable long-term and will lead to a dramatic population collapse. Given the current trend, the U.S. population will fall to 200m by the year 2100, 140m by 2150, 90m by 2200, and only 38m by 2300. You are welcome to visualize it using this simulator.
A shrinking population can be an issue for a number of reasons:
1. Decreased innovation: A smaller population can lead to a decline in the number of entrepreneurs and innovators, as there are fewer people available to create new ideas and businesses. This can stifle economic growth and progress. Inventions like life-saving medical breakthroughs are less likely when there is a shrinking market.
2. Decreased labor force: A smaller population means fewer people available to work, which can lead to labor shortages in certain industries. This can hinder economic growth and productivity.
3. Fewer consumers: A smaller population means fewer people buying goods and services, which can lead to decreased demand and sales for businesses. This can lead to job losses and economic downturns.
4. Aging population: A shrinking population can often lead to an aging population, as there are fewer younger people to replace those who are retiring or dying. This can lead to increased healthcare costs and put a strain on social security and pension systems.
5. Increased tax burden: A smaller population means fewer people to pay taxes, which can lead to a decline in government revenue. This means that the government will increase taxes on the remaining population to compensate.
There are several factors contributing to the low birth rate in the U.S., including a drop in the marriage rate to an all-time low, according to The Wall Street Journal. Many women are also delaying childbirth until later in life, which can lead to fertility issues. Additionally, there is an increasing number of women who are choosing not to have children at all. A survey by the Pew Research Center found that the percentage of women in the U.S. who have never had children has increased, with one in five women remaining childless by their mid-40s.
The low birthrate in the U.S. has implications for the country’s future population growth and economic development. A low birthrate can lead to eventual population degradation and extinction. It can also bring about a slower rate of economic growth, as there are fewer young people entering the workforce.
When people see these numbers, they tend to think they do not matter. But significant population change can have many impacts on all aspects of our life. Therefore, it is important to maintain a sustainable population size for the future prosperity of the country by starting families early and having as many children as possible.